Briefings
Structured public intelligence briefings organized around bottom-line judgments, evidence, confidence levels, alternatives, uncertainties, and indicators to watch.
Iran War Regional Drivers and China Context
Assessment that the 2026 Iran war is best explained by proximate U.S.-Israeli objectives against Iran’s nuclear, missile, leadership, IRGC, and proxy capabilities, with China better understood as a major consequence and strategic context rather than the primary cause.
Pakistan’s U.S.-Iran Mediation and Alignment Risk
Assessment of Pakistan’s fragile role as a U.S.-Iran mediator, its wider effort to regain value in Washington, and the resulting credibility risks with Iran and China.
Iran War Energy Shock and U.S. Inflation Risk
Assessment of how the Iran war is transmitting into U.S. inflation, energy prices, Hormuz chokepoint risk, monetary-policy constraints, and financial-market vulnerability.